Water FractalTier 2
at GAG Store Championship
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -8.5 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1256
· median 1256
· range 1256–1256
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1247
Q3 1403
1482
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.8 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
